Your Part D Premium Could Jump 50% in 2027, or Barely Move. How to Tell Which One You Are

Medicare Open Enrollment is underway, and people with stand-alone Part D drug plans are facing a confusing headline: premiums are jumping 50%, yet the government’s own average barely moved. Both are true. Which one applies to you depends on your plan, whether you get Extra Help, and whether you shop around before December 7.

Why the two numbers disagree

CMS says the average stand-alone Part D premium rises from $35.09 to about $36 in 2027, an increase of less than $1. That average includes people who receive Extra Help, the federal subsidy that pays most of their premium.

Strip those people out and the picture changes. An Avalere Health analysis reported by AARP finds that for the 83% of stand-alone enrollees who don’t get Extra Help, the average premium rises 50%, from $38.72 to $58.20 a month.

Within that group, the spread is wide:

• 21% are in plans rising $30 or more a month
• 27% see a change of less than $5
• 14% see a decrease of $1 to $5

What’s pushing premiums up

Several forces are at work. Drug costs are rising, especially for GLP-1 medications, and the redesigned Part D benefit, including the out-of-pocket cap, shifts more cost onto plans. On top of that, CMS ended a temporary program early that had paid stand-alone plans $9.8 billion over 2025 and 2026 to hold premiums down.

Choices are also shrinking. The number of stand-alone plans falls from 360 to 316, and KFF finds the average person with Original Medicare will have 9 stand-alone plans to pick from in 2027, down from 11. There are no $0-premium stand-alone plans in 2027 for people without Extra Help. In 2026, 28% of Original Medicare enrollees without Extra Help were in one.

Three checks before December 7

1. Read your plan’s Annual Notice of Change. It arrived by the end of September and shows your plan’s 2027 premium, deductible, formulary and pharmacy network. Your plan’s number is the one that matters, not the national average.
2. Check whether you qualify for Extra Help. Extra Help pays most Part D premiums and drug costs for people with limited income and resources, and many people who qualify never apply. Check at ssa.gov or call Social Security at 1-800-772-1213. If you qualify, the 50% jump largely doesn’t apply to you.
3. Compare total cost, not just the premium. In the Medicare Plan Finder, enter your exact drugs and pharmacy. A low-premium plan can cost more over the year if your drugs sit on a high tier or need prior authorization. Look at the premium plus deductible plus copays, up to the $2,400 cap. If your costs are high, ask your plan about the Medicare Prescription Payment Plan, which spreads out-of-pocket costs over the year.

If you have Medicare Advantage instead

If your drug coverage comes through a Medicare Advantage plan, premiums look better: CMS says the average Part D premium in those plans falls from $11.32 to $7 in 2027 after plan rebates. But Advantage plans have their own changes. KFF finds the average person has 28 Advantage drug plans to choose from in 2027, down from 32, and the in-network out-of-pocket limit can be as high as $9,850. Read your Annual Notice of Change the same way.

Thinking about leaving Medicare Advantage for Original Medicare plus a Part D plan? Watch the Medigap rules. Outside your one-time Medigap Open Enrollment Period, and without a guaranteed-issue right such as the 12-month “trial right” after first joining Advantage, insurers in most states can turn you down or charge more based on your health. Talk to your SHIP counselor before you switch. It’s free.

The bottom line

The 50% Part D increase is real for the average stand-alone enrollee without Extra Help, but averages aren’t bills. Some people will pay $30 or more a month extra in 2027, and others will see almost no change. The difference comes down to three things: reading the Annual Notice of Change, checking Extra Help, and comparing your own drugs in the Plan Finder. Open Enrollment ends December 7, and changes take effect January 1, 2027.

Frequently asked questions

Is my Part D premium going up 50%?

Maybe. The 50% figure is the average for stand-alone enrollees without Extra Help ($38.72 to $58.20). About 21% of that group faces increases of $30 or more a month, but 27% see a change under $5 and 14% see a small decrease. Your Annual Notice of Change shows your plan’s number.

What is Extra Help, and how do I apply?

Extra Help is a federal program that pays most Part D premiums and drug costs for people with limited income and resources. You can apply online at ssa.gov or by calling Social Security at 1-800-772-1213.

What is the Part D out-of-pocket cap for 2027?

$2,400, up from $2,100 in 2026. Once your covered drug costs reach the cap, you pay nothing more for covered drugs for the rest of the year. Drugs that aren’t on your plan’s formulary generally don’t count toward it.

When is the deadline to change Part D plans?

Medicare Open Enrollment runs October 15 through December 7, 2026. Changes take effect January 1, 2027.

Related: Medicare Part D changes for 2027 · Medicare Open Enrollment 2027 guide · SeniorAffair Medicare Guide

This article is general information, not insurance or financial advice. Confirm plan details in the Medicare Plan Finder at Medicare.gov or by calling 1-800-MEDICARE (1-800-633-4227). For free one-on-one help, contact your State Health Insurance Assistance Program (SHIP) at shiphelp.org.